With the US housing bubble reinflating, ‘expert’ analysts expected building starts and permits to continues their meteoric rise in October. However, the results were mixed.
Housing Starts beat expectations, rising 4.9% MoM (well above the 3.2% expectation) and also saw a major upward revision in September, from +1.9% MoM to +6.3% MoM.
Building Permits disappointed, unchanged in October versus expectations of a 1.4% rise MoM.
Source: Bloomberg
Single Family Starts surging to at 1.179MM, up 6.4% M/M, up 29.4% Y/Y, and highest since 2007 as multi-family starts remained flat (and notably lower than pre-COVID)…
On the more forward-looking permits side, the picture was similar with multi-family (rental) units tumbling to 365K, down 5.9% M/M, down 30.6% Y/Y, and lowest since Feb 2017…
With NAHB sentiment at record highs, one wonders why homebuilders are not loading up on the forward-looking building permits?
…if we build it, they will come?
