Despite headlines proclaiming there’s no inflation to worry about, Case-Shiller Home Prices were expected to accelerate even stronger in October (the latest data released today) and they did. The 20-City Composite screamed 7.95% higher YoY (smashing expectations of a 6.95% rise)
That’s the fastest rate of acceleration since June 2014. Home prices rose 1.6% from the previous month, also more than projected and the most since April 2013.
Additionally, a gauge of home prices nationwide increased 8.4% from a year earlier, the most since March 2014.
All cities posted year-over-year home-price gains (all above 6%), led by Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego. Data for Detroit were excluded because of pandemic-related reporting delays.
What’s most interesting is the massive decoupling between homebuyer sentiment and homebuilder sentiment and home prices.
Just like we saw in 2017, the decoupling of prices from sentiment is not infrequent; but just as we saw in 2018… it always ends badly for prices.