Nate Silver Hedges Big: Pennsylvania Loss Would Make Biden Underdog

Last week, pollster Nate Silver was so confident in a Biden win that he suggested the only way Trump is reelected would be through a ‘major polling error’ or cheating.

This weekend, however, Silver shoehorned a giant caveat into weeks of confidently proclaiming a Biden win: Pennsylvania

“Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points,” Silver told ABC‘s “This Week” (sporting a new ‘battle beard’) adding that if Trump were to win, “it would come down to Pennsylvania.”

Silver then sets the expectation for an unfair vote, saying “Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on.”

And then, Silver says that if Biden doesn’t win PA, he’ll become the underdog.

“Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.”

About that…

On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed President Trump – its first GOP endorsement in nearly 50 years.

Silver has given Trump a 10% chance of winning, down from the 28.6% chance he gave Trump vs. Clinton in 2016.


And here’s Nate’s giant hedge: