Existing Home Sales Soar To Highest In 15 Years

Existing home sales bucked the trend in September (rising to highest since May 2006 as new- and pending-home sales slipped) and analysts expect it too catch down a little in October, but yet again, it surprised to the upside, surging 4.3% MoM (vs a 1.1% MoM expected drop), and September’s jump was revised higher to a 9.9% spike…

This surprise rise has pushed the YoY jump in sales to 26.6% – the biggest spike since Nov 2009


Source: Bloomberg

This is the highest existing home sales print since November 2005…

Source: Bloomberg

Christophe Barraud explains why the number was so ‘surprisingly’ good:

  • Buyers continued to benefit from favorable market conditions in October with mortgage rates still close to the lowest level on record

  • Local/state reports confirm that sales kept rising by more than 20% YoY (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) in October, which should translate into a bounce on a MoM basis (seasonally adjusted: SA)

  • Recent announcements from corporates suggest that home-improvement activity (correlated to existing home sales) is still booming

Median home price rose 15.5% from last year to $313,000, an all-time high, according to NAR.

“It’s quite amazing, and certainly surprising me,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

“It’s quite remarkable given that we’re still in the midst of the pandemic and the high unemployment rate.”

Finally, we note that while homebuilder sentiment is at record highs (but building permits stumbled?), homebuyer sentiment remains low and has rolled over…

Source: Bloomberg

And don’t expect The Fed to come to the rescue with ‘rate-cuts’ anytime soon.